September Market Report: Easing Towards Winter

October 14, 2014 by Marc Lebowitz

Single family home sales in September 2014 were 651 in Ada County, a decrease of 6% compared to September 2013. YTD total sales are down 5% compared to this time last year; 5,920 homes sold compared to 6,203.

In September, sales of homes priced above $200,000 showed increases in nearly every price category. Overall sales are continue to lag because sales of homes in the five categories priced below $159,999 are down anywhere from 1% ($160,000 to $199,999) to 200% (70,000 to $89,999). The biggest trend “reversal” was in the $120,000 – $159,000 range. This category had been increasing steadily until September when it fell 15%.

Pending sales at the end of September were 930; down just 3% from September 2013. This is the smallest “decrease” in Pending sales all year (April was down 18%). This bodes well for a 4th quarter sales “rebound”.

September median home price was $205,551; up 4% from September 2013. Our YTD median price is $209,900; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for September was $283,553; up 7% from September 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 3% to $191,000.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of September decreased 4% from August 2014 to 2,857. This is 11% more than last year at this time.

As is typical this time of year, inventory contracted in all price categories for September; with the exception of homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 which grew modestly.

In Ada County we now have 3.9 months of inventory on hand, essentially unchanged from the end of July.
The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 to $119,000 which has 1.7 months; and $120,000 – $159,000 which has 2.3 months.

From $200,000 to $400,000 we have 4 months available.
Of sales in September, the two price points that held on to their summer pace were $120,000 – $160,000 and $160,000 to $200,000.

So…what’s next?

Our late Sumer sales tried hard, but couldn’t make up for the surge in July and August 2013. We have narrowed the gap, but not surpassed 2013…yet. There was a slow down during the last three months of 2013. Our expectation continues to be a strong fourth quarter.

We have more inventory coming online in the <$160,000 which will release some pent up demand among first time buyers.

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